The Lyceum Daily — May 13, 2026

Wednesday turns on a single axis: Beijing. Trump lands for talks with Xi as crude pushes toward triple digits, a hotter CPI print stiffens the bond market, and the Gaza ceasefire inches toward a second phase that no one has yet agreed how to enforce. The day's quieter tell is in the delegation list — Jensen Huang flying with the president — and in a French parliament that cannot hold a prime minister for a full season.

UN Security Council presses to consolidate Gaza ceasefire as Phase Two begins — A day after the last Israeli hostage's body was returned, Deputy Special Coordinator Ramiz Alakbarov called the launch of Phase Two of Trump's 20-point plan "a critical step," while the UK pressed for an Israeli withdrawal timeline, Hamas disarmament, and an International Stabilization Force. Israel's representative noted Hamas still holds thousands of rockets and tens of thousands of rifles. Why it matters: Whether Phase Two holds determines if more than two million Gazans see reconstruction begin or another collapse into war. UN Press

Trump arrives in Beijing for Xi summit with tariff architecture unsettled — The Trump–Xi meetings open with the US–China truce extended to November 10, 2026, but the Section 122 universal 10% baseline is set to expire in July and two USTR Section 301 investigations remain live, mirrored by two Chinese MOFCOM probes. Jensen Huang is travelling with the US delegation. Why it matters: The framework set this week will price into electronics, EVs, and semiconductors for years. Atlantic Council

Trump calls Iran ceasefire "on life support"; Hormuz traffic curtailed — The president rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal as more than 20 US warships operate in Gulf waters and CENTCOM reports commercial traffic rerouting. Regional reporting cites estimates of a roughly one-billion-barrel oil shortfall tied to Hormuz disruption. Why it matters: A fifth of global crude moves through the strait; a sustained blockade feeds directly into fuel prices and inflation worldwide. CBS News

US April CPI runs hot; energy drives more than 40% of the monthly gain — April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, with energy up 3.8% on the month. Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 10-year at session highs near 4.46% and the 30-year around 5.02% on the session. Why it matters: A hotter print could narrow the path to rate cuts and raise borrowing costs for mortgages, cards, and corporate debt. CNBC

Lecornu reappointed in France, racing the clock on a 2026 budget — Sébastien Lecornu, France's fifth prime minister in under two years, returned to Matignon days after resigning and now faces censure threats from both the left and the National Rally as he attempts to pass a budget. Why it matters: The EU's second-largest economy cannot finalize fiscal commitments — including Ukraine aid — without a working majority. France 24

UN peacekeeping faces 15–25% capacity cuts after US contribution drop — US payments fell from roughly $1 billion to $680 million under the "America First" framework, forcing reductions across missions in the DRC, South Sudan, and Lebanon. China has pledged to maintain its full contributions. Why it matters: Thinner blue-helmet coverage in fragile states raises the risk of renewed conflict and refugee flows. UN Press

West Bank violence continues despite Gaza truce — UN officials reported continuing Israeli air strikes, shelling, and gunfire across Palestinian territory even as Phase Two negotiations advance. UN Press

Kuwait arrests four IRGC members for attempted sea infiltration — The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the plot; separately, Bahrain sentenced three people to life in prison for spying for the IRGC. The National

IRGC Quds Force commander makes unannounced Baghdad visit — Esmail Qaani's trip is read as Tehran coordinating with Iraqi allied groups amid the US–Iran confrontation. The National

Israel intercepts Yemen-launched drone — The interception extends a pattern of multi-front pressure from Iran-aligned actors. The National

Russia hosts Taliban delegation, warns against foreign troops in Afghanistan — Foreign Minister Lavrov praised Taliban anti-extremism efforts as Kabul sought expanded security and trade ties, signalling renewed Russian engagement in Central Asia.

Supreme Court IEEPA ruling reshapes tariff architecture — The February 20, 2026 decision barred IEEPA-based tariffs; the administration is pivoting to Sections 301 and 232, but mandatory investigation periods delay new measures. Tax Foundation

Effective US tariff on Chinese imports near triple January 2025 level — Penn Wharton analysis pegs the effective rate at 31.6% in February 2026 versus 10.7% in January 2025, even after peak headline rates of 147.6% have come down. The Wire China

Oil pushes toward $100; WTI up 2.3% on the session to $97.60 intraday — Amid Hormuz disruption and mixed equity breadth, the S&P 500 sat at session levels of 7,417, up 0.25% on the session (intraday), the Nasdaq at 26,308, up 0.23% on the session (intraday), and the VIX rose 4.9% on the session to 18.04 intraday. Yahoo Finance

China's MOFCOM opens twin probes of US trade practices — Beijing is investigating US measures targeting "green products" and supply-chain disruption, mirroring the two USTR Section 301 cases and creating legal cover for retaliatory duties. China Briefing

Wendy's pops on Trian buyout speculation — Shares moved intraday on reports Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management is exploring a take-private bid, a reminder event-driven names can run on a flat tape. CNBC

Gaza Health Ministry tally reaches 72,740 killed since October 2023 — The figures, including 20,179 children, come as the Council debates Phase Two and humanitarian agencies press for medical access. Al Jazeera

China tightens rare-earth export licensing — Beijing imposed controls on mining, smelting, and magnet technologies, citing security risks; China controls about 90% of global supply, with direct exposure for EV, chip, and defense manufacturers. PwC

India and Australia sign Indo-Pacific security pact — The bilateral agreement covers joint military staff talks and submarine rescue cooperation, deepening the Quad-adjacent architecture.

Rafah pilot housing compound takes shape on the Yellow Line — The IDF is clearing rubble and unexploded ordnance to build a neighborhood for roughly 20,000 Palestinians, the first tangible reconstruction since the ceasefire began. Times of Israel

UK begins first migrant removals to France under new treaty — Initial operations involved 26 deportations alongside 18 legal entries; European capitals are watching the framework as a possible Channel-crossing template.

Lecornu's tenure is the latest test of Fifth Republic political stability — One predecessor's 26-day tenure stands as the shortest in the Republic's history; the 2024 snap elections left the Assembly split into three near-equal blocs. Time

Iran has issued a new, broader legal definition of the Strait of Hormuz that would enlarge the waters Tehran says fall under its jurisdiction. The change could affect commercial transit through a chokepoint for global energy shipments and complicate maritime enforcement and freedom-of-navigation calculations. (Strait of Hormuz: Why the US and Iran are sailing in very ..)

Also in right-leaning news:

• Pakistan denied reports it was sheltering Iranian aircraft as Trump praised Islamabad’s mediation role in regional diplomacy.

Vox reports that Marty Makary resigned as head of the FDA, with coverage linking his departure to controversy over the agency’s handling of flavored-vape regulation. Reporting frames the resignation as the culmination of mounting political and regulatory pressure on the agency’s leadership. (Marty Makary resigns as Trump's FDA chief)

Also in progressive news:

• Virginia Democrats unveiled a plan intended to preserve their current congressional map amid legal and political challenges.
• The Atlantic reports that Stephen Miller has retreated from the political forefront, signaling a shift in hardline immigration advocacy influence.

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